The COVID-19 pandemic response relied heavily on statistical and machine learning models to predict key outcomes such as case prevalence and fatality rates. These predictions were instrumental in enabling timely public health interventions that helped break transmission cycles. While most existing models are grounded in traditional epidemiological data, the potential of alternative datasets, such as those derived from genomic information and human behavior, remains underexplored. In the current study, we investigated the usefulness of diverse modalities of feature sets in predicting case surges. Our results highlight the relative effectiveness of biological (e.g., mutations), public health (e.g., case counts, policy interventions) and human behavioral features (e.g., mobility and social media conversations) in predicting country-level case surges. Importantly, we uncover considerable heterogeneity in predictive performance across countries and feature modalities, suggesting that surge prediction models may need to be tailored to specific national contexts and pandemic phases. Overall, our work highlights the value of integrating alternative data sources into existing disease surveillance frameworks to enhance the prediction of pandemic dynamics.

Stochastic localization is a pathwise analysis technique originating from convex geometry. This paper explores certain algorithmic aspects of stochastic localization as a computational tool. First, we unify various existing stochastic localization schemes and discuss their localization rates and regularization. We then introduce a joint stochastic localization framework for constructing couplings between probability distributions. As an initial application, we extend the optimal couplings between normal distributions under the 2-Wasserstein distance to log-concave distributions and derive a normal approximation result. As a further application, we introduce a family of distributional distances based on the couplings induced by joint stochastic localization. Under a specific choice of the localization process, the induced distance is topologically equivalent to the 2-Wasserstein distance for probability measures supported on a common compact set. Moreover, weighted versions of this distance are related to several statistical divergences commonly used in practice. The proposed distances also motivate new methods for distribution estimation that are of independent interest.

Deep learning has become an essential part of computer vision, with deep neural networks (DNNs) excelling in predictive performance. However, they often fall short in other critical quality dimensions, such as robustness, calibration, or fairness. While existing studies have focused on a subset of these quality dimensions, none have explored a more general form of "well-behavedness" of DNNs. With this work, we address this gap by simultaneously studying nine different quality dimensions for image classification. Through a large-scale study, we provide a bird's-eye view by analyzing 326 backbone models and how different training paradigms and model architectures affect the quality dimensions. We reveal various new insights such that (i) vision-language models exhibit high fairness on ImageNet-1k classification and strong robustness against domain changes; (ii) self-supervised learning is an effective training paradigm to improve almost all considered quality dimensions; and (iii) the training dataset size is a major driver for most of the quality dimensions. We conclude our study by introducing the QUBA score (Quality Understanding Beyond Accuracy), a novel metric that ranks models across multiple dimensions of quality, enabling tailored recommendations based on specific user needs.

Recent developments on deep learning established some theoretical properties of deep neural networks estimators. However, most of the existing works on this topic are restricted to bounded loss functions or (sub)-Gaussian or bounded input. This paper considers robust deep learning from weakly dependent observations, with unbounded loss function and unbounded input/output. It is only assumed that the output variable has a finite $r$ order moment, with $r >1$. Non asymptotic bounds for the expected excess risk of the deep neural network estimator are established under strong mixing, and $\psi$-weak dependence assumptions on the observations. We derive a relationship between these bounds and $r$, and when the data have moments of any order (that is $r=\infty$), the convergence rate is close to some well-known results. When the target predictor belongs to the class of H\"older smooth functions with sufficiently large smoothness index, the rate of the expected excess risk for exponentially strongly mixing data is close to or as same as those for obtained with i.i.d. samples. Application to robust nonparametric regression and robust nonparametric autoregression are considered. The simulation study for models with heavy-tailed errors shows that, robust estimators with absolute loss and Huber loss function outperform the least squares method.

Regularization is an effective way to promote the generalization performance of machine learning models. In this paper, we focus on label smoothing, a form of output distribution regularization that prevents overfitting of a neural network by softening the ground-truth labels in the training data in an attempt to penalize overconfident outputs. Existing approaches typically use cross-validation to impose this smoothing, which is uniform across all training data. In this paper, we show that such label smoothing imposes a quantifiable bias in the Bayes error rate of the training data, with regions of the feature space with high overlap and low marginal likelihood having a lower bias and regions of low overlap and high marginal likelihood having a higher bias. These theoretical results motivate a simple objective function for data-dependent smoothing to mitigate the potential negative consequences of the operation while maintaining its desirable properties as a regularizer. We call this approach Structural Label Smoothing (SLS). We implement SLS and empirically validate on synthetic, Higgs, SVHN, CIFAR-10, and CIFAR-100 datasets. The results confirm our theoretical insights and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in comparison to traditional label smoothing.